An Electroencephalography connectome predictive model of major depressive disorder severity

Emerging evidence showed that major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with disruptions of brain structural and functional networks, rather than impairment of isolated brain region. Thus, connectome-based models capable of predicting the depression severity at the individual level can be clinically useful. Here, we applied a machine-learning approach to predict the severity of depression using resting-state networks derived from source-reconstructed Electroencephalography (EEG) signals. Using regression models and three independent EEG datasets (N=327), we tested whether resting state functional connectivity could predict individual depression score. On the first dataset, results showed that individuals scores could be reasonably predicted (r=0.61, p=4 x 10-18) using intrinsic functional connectivity in the EEG alpha band (8-13 Hz). In particular, the brain regions which contributed the most to the predictive network belong to the default mode network. We further tested the predictive potential of the established model by conducting two external validations on (N1=53, N2=154). Results showed high significant correlations between the predicted and the measured depression scale scores (r1= 0.49, r2=0.37, p<0.001). These findings lay the foundation for developing a generalizable and scientifically interpretable EEG network-based markers that can ultimately support clinicians in a biologically-based characterization of MDD.