Young adult predictors of alcohol dependence up to age 53: A 44-year prospective cohort study of Danish men.

AIMS To examine (1) if there is a positive association between drinking volume in young men and lifetime risk of alcohol dependence (AD) and (2) if there are other associations between young adulthood factors and lifetime risk of AD. DESIGN Prospective cohort study of sons of fathers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and matched low-risk controls without paternal AUD. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 204 men, who were assessed at baseline in 1979 at age 19-20 years, were followed through record linkage with Danish registers and consecutive psychiatric interviews at the ages of 33, 43 and 53 years. MEASUREMENTS AD diagnoses were interview-based according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition or made by treating clinicians according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) Revision 8 (ICD-8) until 1993 and Revision 10 (ICD-10) from 1994.We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the development of AD after adjustment for confounders including smoking, social status, and paternal AUD. FINDINGS The following variables from the examination at age 19-20 independently predicted lifetime AD: alcohol consumption > 21 beverages/week vs 0-21 (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.22-4.97), police contact (OR= 2.60, 95% CI 1.28-5.28) and institutionalization related to the individual (OR=2.90, 95% CI 1.39-6.02). Compared with <1 beverages/week, the risk for AD did not increase significantly for drinking volume categories: 1-7, 8-14, or 15-21 beverages/week. CONCLUSION Independently of other risk factors in young adulthood, young Danish men's risk for lifetime alcohol dependence appears to be predicted by a drinking volume at age 19-20 years exceeding 21 beverages per week.