Flight Vehicle Penetration Probability Evaluation against the Missile Intercepting

Traditional flight vehicle penetration effect evaluation is based on penetration miss distance. Because of the random distribution of miss distance, the traditional evaluation method brings much evaluation error and the evaluation result can only provide the successful penetration or not but can’t provide the penetration effect parameter caused by the corresponding miss distance. To discover the quantitative relationship between the miss distance and penetration effect , the penetration probability evaluation against the intercepting is researched. Firstly, the kill probability model of single missile is built up. Then the mapping model between the penetration probability and miss distance is created to evaluate the penetration probability corresponding miss distance. Finally, the algorithm performance is simulated by using of typical scenario. The penetration probability evaluation method proposed can be used for all kinds of plane and missile by calculating the penetration probability corresponding miss distance to provide commander accurate data for battle decision-making and it’s important in theory and practice.