Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa.

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.