Chocs pluviométriques, marchés et crises alimentaires : l'effet de la sécheresse sur les marchés céréaliers au Niger

How do grain markets respond to extreme rainfall in West Africa? This paper examines the effect of weather on grain market performance in Niger, a country affected by droughts, crop failures and famines since the 1930s. Using a dataset that combines information on rainfall, agricultural production, prices and transaction costs, I exploit rainfall variation to estimate the impact of drought on grain market performance between 1996 and 2006.I find that drought reduces grain price dispersion across markets, suggesting that market integration is higher during drought years. This impact is stronger as a higher percentage of markets are affected by drought. I then provide suggestive evidence of the link between drought and the 2005 food crisis in Niger. The results suggest that early warning systems in West Africa should focus on the spatial impact of drought at the sub-regional level, as well as monitor prices in key forecasting markets.