Modify alpha value of EMA method and brown method: A data forecasting comparison of COVID-19

Forecasting is a process or method used to predict future uncertainty as an effort to make better decisions. The purpose of this research is to compare the proximity level of the quantitative measurement to the actual value (accuracy) between the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) method and the Brown method by modifying the alpha value between 0 and 1. The data used is the daily data dissemination of COVID-19 in NTB Province, which starts from 11 March-14 July 2020. Based on data simulation results with alpha value modification obtained information that the Brown method is more accurate than the EMA method. The alpha value with the least error in the Brown method amounted to 0.7 with the MAPE of 4.34%. Therefore, doing forecasting by using Brown should take the results of the smallest simulation value of the value of MAD, MAPE, or MSE because the smaller the value will be the better quality of objects.