What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary

The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems. Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented. Case 1--Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years. Case 2--Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years. Case 3--Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. Case 4--Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.