Population dynamics of an endangered forest bird using mark–recapture models based on DNA-tagging

Populations of vertebrates are built of individuals of different sex, age class or stage, which often affect distinctly the population dynamics. Such intrapopulation partitioning of vital rates needs to be identified to develop efficient conservation actions. Using DNA extracted from feces and feathers we combined DNA-tagging and mark–recapture analyses to evaluate sex-specific population dynamics of an endangered population of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus; Phasianidae). We built encounter histories for 120 individuals in the mating seasons of 2009–2011, in a study area of about 424 km2. Minimum number of individuals per mating season and estimates of population size ranged 56–67 and 76–115, respectively. Estimates of population size were consistently lower in multiple-season, open-population models than in single-season closed-population models. The super-population in the study area was 149 individuals for the whole study period. Sex-ratio was notably male-biased. Probability of recapture p ranged 0.62–0.70, and was similar for males and females. Female apparent survival φ was lower than expected, and much lower than male apparent survival. It includes however movements in and out of the sampled population, thus comparison with previously reported values based on conventional tagging should be cautious. Females showed higher turnover, indicated by higher probability β of entering the sampled population, and higher number of entries from the super-population, Bgross. Realized population growth rate ʎ was > 1 for both females and males. The combination of non-intrusive DNA-tagging and the analytical framework of mark–recapture models provided inferences on population dynamics that would have been hardly feasible with conventional methods. Male-biased sex ratios, higher female turnover and seemingly low female apparent survival were our key findings. While the whole population needs continuous monitoring, we believe that adult females deserve priority attention in evaluation and design of conservation actions.