Sociodemographic variables, risk factors, and protective factors contributing to youth recidivism

espanolIntroduccion: este estudio tiene como objetivo explorar las capacidades predictivas de las variables sociodemografi cas, los factores de riesgo y los de proteccion en la reincidencia de menores infractores, comparando dos metodologias analiticas: modelos de regresion logistica y modelos de analisis cualitativos comparativos. Metodo: los participantes fueron 389 menores infractores (14-19,3 anos) del Juzgado de Menores, a los cuales se les administro el Youth Level Service/Case Management Inventory. Se obtuvieron datos sobre la reincidencia en un periodo de seguimiento de dos anos para cada participante. Resultados: se encontraron dos perfi les diferentes de reincidentes, la mayoria eran varones jovenes con puntuaciones altas en factores de riesgo y bajas en factores de proteccion. Por el contrario, se hallo una minoria de jovenes extranjeras con delitos contra las personas y escasos factores de proteccion. Conclusiones: detectar las diferentes variables que contribuyen a la reincidencia puede ayudar a implementar programas de prevencion adaptados a las necesidades criminogenas de cada perfi l especifi co. EnglishBackground: This study explores the predictive capabilities of sociodemographic characteristics and risk and protective factors for youth recidivism while comparing two analytical methodologies; logistic prediction models and qualitative comparative analysis models. Methods: Information from the judicial fi les of 389 young offenders (14-19.03 years) were gathered from the Juvenile Court and risk and protective factors were extracted from the administration of the Youth Level Service/Case Management Inventory. Recidivism data was also obtained for a follow-up period of two years for each young person. Results: The results showed two different profi les of reoffenders. Most were young boys with high risk scores and low protective factors, but a minority were young foreign girls with crimes against persons and low protective factors. Conclusions: Being able to detect the different variables that contribute to recidivism can help implement prevention programs tailored to the criminogenic needs of each specifi c profi le