China Electricity Generation Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity in 2030: Implications for Electric Vehicles

Electrification of transportation offers clear national energy security benefits but unclear climate benefits. With the current heterogeneity of grid electricity mix in China, greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary dramatically with location. Currently, compared to baseline conventional gasoline vehicles, BEVs in north and northeastern Chinese provinces have very modest (~10-20%) well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG benefits whereas BEVs in southern provinces have substantial benefits (~50%). With the expected transition to a more renewable electricity mix documented here, regional effects will largely disappear and the benefits of BEVs will be substantial (~60-70% lower than current ICEV and ~10-40% lower than 2030 advanced HEV) across the whole of China by 2030. GHG emissions from BEVs in Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Pearl River Delta) and U.S. cities and regions (New York, Washington D.C, Chicago, New England, Texas, California) in 2015 and 2030 are evaluated and ...