住宅個案價格分散之研究：房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析

An extensive housing price literature exists that focuses on mean housing prices rather than price dispersion. However, given increased variation in housing prices, the economic meaning of the average price level becomes less important than price dispersion. Since price dispersion reflects the risk of the return rate, the risk of the return rate increases with the degree of price dispersion. Risk preferences differ among individuals, and everyone has their own limit of risk tolerance. Therefore, developers and consumers are more concerned with whether the return rate risk is becoming intolerably high, rather than simply caring about the housing prices. This study attempts to clarify the relationship between price dispersion and price level and the factors that contribute to price dispersion in the market. The empirical results show that as prices increase, so too does price dispersion. Moreover, price level is a leading indicator of dispersion with a three-season lead time. This study also finds that housing projects promoted in periods of depression period or situated in worse locations tend to increase price dispersion. The empirical results imply that developer promotion and pricing strategies change with timing and location. Participants in the new housing market should be aware of the risks to which they are exposed.