Combining Fuzzy Delphi Method and Cross-Impact Analysis to Determine the Main Predictors of Military Threats Against the Islamic Republic of Iran

The confrontation between the two countries of the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has a relatively long history And the recent challenges in the areas of military, nuclear weapons, proxy wars, missile programs, Zionist security, human rights claims and … have been added to its severity. The present research is trying to identify and present the key drivers of American threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran with a combination of futuristic approaches. For this purpose, Fuzzy Delphi method and Cross-Impact analysis are used to answer research questions. To achieve this goal, in the first part of the study using the experts' opinions, 52 Drivers Effective on US Military Threats against I.R of Iran was identified and after four phases of the Fuzzy Delphi process, it reduced to 10 drivers. In the second part, with the help of Cross-Impact analysis and Mick Mac software, key drivers have been introduced. The results show that the " proxy war" and "Strengthen the military power of regional countries " variables are considered as key drivers of US military threat against Iran due to the simultaneous influential and impressible (As well as being located in the northeast region of the chart).