Comparison of 3 Explant-Based Prognostic Models as Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation: Analysis of Our Experience

Abstract Tumor load is often underdiagnosed on radiological examination previous to liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocarcinoma (CHC). Thus, post–liver transplant explant analysis is required following transplantation to assess the risk of the recurrence of CHC. The objectives were to compare the characteristics of CHC on pre-LT radiological examination and explant histology and validate three models for the prediction of recurrence based on data from a cohort of patients treated in our hospital. Methods A retrospective study was undertaken of 105 LTs for CHC performed in our unit between January 2006 and January 2015. The minimum follow-up was five years. The preoperative radiological tumor stage was compared to the explant-based histologic stage. Three prognostic models were validated using our cohort of patients. Results Following Milan's criteria, the tumor load was underdiagnosed on pre-LT radiological examination in 20 patients, which accounted for 19% of the total sample. The 5-year overall recurrence was 6.6% for scores  7 in the Up-to-Seven model; and 3.6% for PCRS ≤0, 27.8% for PCRS1-2, and 100% for PCRS≥3 according to Chan's model. The predictive model for 5-year recurrence after LT with the greatest area under the curve was Chan's model (0.813 [95% CI: 0.650–0.977]) versus Decaens' model (0.674 [95% CI: 0.483–0.866]) and the Up-to-Seven model (0.481 [95% CI: 0.296–0.667]). Conclusions A pre-LT radiological examination leads to the underdiagnosis of tumor load, and the risk for recurrence must be recalculated following LT. In light of the results obtained, Chan's model is more accurate in predicting 5-year recurrence of CHC post-LT based on 3 levels of risk. New prognostic models are needed to optimize the prediction of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocarcinoma.