Recent changes of precipitation in Gansu, Northwest China: An index-based analysis

Monitoring variations in precipitation is important in detecting regional climate change and studying the hydrological cycle. An understanding of its dynamic characteristics will be valuable in the management of water resources in Northwest China. This study utilized daily precipitation data from 29 stations across Gansu spanning the years from 1960 to 2013; the data was used to investigate changes in precipitation by defining 21 precipitation-related indices. Trends were detected in the series of precipitation-related indices using the Mann–Kendall test. Primary results are as follows: (1) Decreasing trends in both the extreme precipitation and wet spell indices are indicative of a decrease in precipitation in southeastern Gansu, whereas the trends in the data indicate that northwestern Gansu has experienced an increase in precipitation; (2) decreasing trends in the annual number and length of dry spells with longer durations in northwestern Gansu also demonstrate that the precipitation frequency and intensity are increasing across this area; (3) by means of 24-month time scales, standardized precipitation index values, and principal component analysis, the Gansu can also be identified into two distinctive sub-regions, which predominantly show different variations of dryness/wetness during 1960–2013; and (4) the correlation analysis showed that the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high possesses obvious effects on a number of precipitation indices in two subregions of Gansu. In addition, the Indian Ocean Dipole and Multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index may also be important factors in the southeastern areas; in contrast, the impacts of large-scale climate indices on precipitation indices are less severe in northwestern Gansu.