Circadian rhythm and quantitave predication based on SARIMA model of hemorrhagic stroke

Objective To understand the distribution characteristics of circadian rhythm of hemorrhagic stroke and to develop a time series predication model, so as to provide some references for the primary prevention of hemorrhagic stroke. Methods A total of 895 patients with hemorrhagic stroke from 3 hospital were enrolled from June 1 to 30 in 2017. The circadian occurrence times were collected. The time series analysis was explored using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) . Results There were statistical differences in occurrence cases between different periods (P<0.05). 243 cases (27.15%) occurred hemorrhagic stroke from Beijing time 8: 00 to 11: 00 and 297 cases (33.18%) 18: 00 to 21: 00. By identifying and testing, a SARIMA (1, 0, 1) × (1, 1, 1) 24 model was developed and it was accurate for the prediction of the history data. Conclusions The peak periods of hemorrhagic stroke occurrence are Beijing time 8: 00 to 11: 00 and 18: 00 to 21: 00. SARIMA (1, 0, 1) × (1, 1, 1) 24 model is accurate for prediction of circadian occurrence tendency of hemorrhagic stroke and can provide more reference information for taking active prevention and treatment measures. Key words: Hemorrhagic stroke; Circadian rhythm; Time series; Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model; Prediction