Predictors of academic success for Māori, Pacific and non-Māori non-Pacific students in health professional education: a quantitative analysis

Tertiary institutions internationally aim to increase student diversity, however are struggling to achieve equitable academic outcomes for indigenous and ethnic minority students and detailed exploration of factors that impact on success is required. This study explored the predictive effect of admission variables on academic outcomes for health professional students by ethnic grouping. Kaupapa Māori and Pacific research methodologies were used to conduct a quantitative analysis using data for 2686 health professional students [150 Māori, 257 Pacific, 2279, non-Māori non-Pacific (nMnP)]. The predictive effect of admission variables: school decile; attending school in Auckland; type of admission; bridging programme; and first-year bachelor results on academic outcomes: year 2–4 grade point average (GPA); graduating; graduating in the minimum time; and optimal completion for the three ethnic groupings and the full cohort was explored using multiple regression analyses. After adjusting for admission variables, for every point increase in first year bachelor GPA: year 2–4 GPA increased by an average of 0.46 points for Māori (p = 0.0002, 95% CI 0.22, 0.69), 0.70 points for Pacific (p < 0.0001, CI 0.52, 0.87), and 0.55 points for nMnP (p < 0.0001, CI 0.51, 0.58) students. For the total cohort, ethnic grouping was consistently the most significant predictor of academic outcomes. This study demonstrated clear differences in academic outcomes between both Māori and Pacific students when compared to nMnP students. Some (but not all) of the disparities between ethnic groupings could be explained by controlling for admission variables.