延迟退休对上海养老保险基金统筹账户的支出影响分析 Analysis on the Co-Ordinate Account Expenditure Effect of Shanghai Based on Extend Retirement Age

本文引入养老金调整指数，采用精算模型对柔性延迟退休视角下的统筹基金对劳动者退休后的各年支付规模进行测算。并对劳动者每年领取的基础养老金在引入生存概率变量的基础上进行现值折算。测算结果表明统筹基金对劳动者基础养老金的支付规模伴随工资水平的上涨呈增长趋势；从统筹基金变化速率看，伴随支付基数的扩大，基金支出规模变化速度呈逐渐下降趋势；延退政策的实施可延缓统筹基金的巨大支付压力，实现社会养老保险制度的可持续发展。 This paper introduced Pension Adjustment Index, by using actuarial model estimated the paying scale of pool fund for the retired workers every year under the flexible delay retirement perspective. At the same time, the survival probability variable was introduced to commute present value of the received basic pension of retired workers each year. It turns out that the pay scale of co-ordinate fund for workers’ basic pension shows a growing trend, accompanied by the rise of the wage level. From change rate of the pool fund, along with the base payment expansion, the change rate of the fund expenditure scale shows the gradually declining trend. The implementation of flexible retirement policy can maintenance the social old-age pension insurance system for sustainable development.