Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global "Nutrition at Risk" Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model.

Food security analyses of international trade largely overlook the importance of substantial heterogeneity and complexity of nutrient content in food products. This paper quantifies the extent to which wheat-based nutrient supplies, including energy, protein, iron, zinc, and magnesium, are exposed to the risks of realistic productivity and trade shocks. By employing a static and stochastic world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we find that productivity shocks may result in losses in households’ nutrient consumption of up to 18% for protein, 33.1% for zinc, and 37.4% for magnesium. Significant losses are observed in countries mostly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. Since the main centers of wheat exports have recently been shifting to former Soviet Union countries, we also simulated the nutritional risks of export restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which have resorted to this policy instrument in recent years. We find that partial export restrictions increase the probability of nutrient shocks by five times or more in most countries that we studied. Increased nutrient deficiencies have a range of public health implications in the affected countries, which could be mitigated and/or avoided by adjusting production and trade policies and by targeting high nutritional risk groups, such as women and children. Since the potential implications of supply shocks are diffused across countries through international trade, the stricter regulation of export restrictions to enhance the predictably and reliability of global food supplies is also needed.