Predicting potential suitable habitats of Chinese fir under current and future climatic scenarios based on Maxent model

Abstract The continuous global climate change has affected the living habits, morphological characteristics and spatial distribution of tree species. Chinese fir (C. lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook) is one of the most important conifer tree species in China, which plays a major role in terms of timber supplies and environment protection. Predict the potential suitable habitats of Chinese fir under different climatic scenarios, can not only provide scientific theoretical basis for the planning and planting of Chinese fir, but also have great significance for maintaining the stability of the plantation ecosystem. Here, we used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model which optimized by the ENMeval package, to predicted the potential suitable habitats for Chinese fir under current climatic conditions and two climatic scenarios in 2070s. Our results showed that the complexity of the model was relative low, when the regularization multiplier (RM) was 0.5 and feature combination (FC) was linear (L) and quadratic (Q). Under this parameter setting, the high and moderate suitable habitat area of Chinese fir were 83.90 × 104 km2 and 97.62 × 104 km2, respectively, which suggested we can carry out Chinese fir planting activities with different cultivation purposes. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of warmest quarter were identified as the essential factors shaping habitat suitability for Chinese fir. Under future climate scenarios, the high suitable habitat was reduced and the degree of fragmentation was increased, and the total potential suitable habitat of Chinese fir had the tendency to migrate to high-altitude regions. Managers should be cautious about the cultivation area selection of Chinese fir plantation as the potential suitable habitat changed under the global climate change continuously. It is therefore imperative to adjust the long-term management and protection strategy of Chinese fir plantation.