Coastal landslide activity: a probabilistic simulation model

A process-based simulation model of coastal landslide activity is described which uses Monte Carlo simulation to build up probabilistic predictions of cliff recession. The model, CLIFFPLAN, represents the principal nearshore, beach and landsliding processes that are instrumental in coastal cliff recession. Its potential is demonstrated by application to an eroding coastal cliff site on the east coast of the UK. This type of process-based simulation model could be used to make probabilistic predictions of cliff response to proposed engineering schemes, such as cliff toe protection or beach nourishment, and to model the consequences of potential climate changes such as sea level rise or changing hydrological regimes.