Land Use and Land Cover Pattern as a Measure of Tourism Impact on a Lakeshore Zone

Lakes provide different ecosystem services, including those related to tourism and recreation. Sustainable development principles should be respected in lake tourism planning. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone in a typical post-glacial Lakeland in Northern Poland (Central Europe). An explanatory analysis of the distribution of individual spatial factor values was performed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations algorithm (SHAP). In a first step, the aim was to select a Machine Learning model for modelling based on Shapley values. The greater or lesser influence of a given factor on the tourism function was measured for individual lakes. The final results of ensemble modelling and SHAP were obtained by averaging the results of five random repetitions of the execution of these models. The impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone can be much more accurately determined using an indirect method, by analysing the tourism and recreational infrastructure constantly present there. The values of the indices proposed in the study provide indirect information on the number of tourists using the tourist and recreational facilities and are a measure of the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone. The developed methodology can be applied to the majority of post-glacial lakes in Europe and other regions of the world in order to monitor the threats resulting from shore zone exploitation. Such studies can be an appropriate tool for management and planning by the relevant authorities.