Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2

AbstractThe development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical seasonal forecast system. Using a hindcast set for the period 1982–2006, POAMA is shown to provide skillful forecasts of El Nino and La Nina many months in advance and, because the model faithfully simulates the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall associated with displacements of the southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and ITCZ during La Nina and El Nino, it also provides good predictions of rainfall throughout the tropical Pacific region. The availability of seasonal forecasts from POAMA should be beneficial to Pacific island countries for the production of regional climate outlooks across the region.