Effect of park use and landscape structure on COVID-19 transmission rates

The COVID-19 pandemic has had severe impacts on global public health. In the UK, social distancing measures and a nationwide lockdown were introduced to reduce the spread of the virus. Green space accessibility may have been particularly important during this lockdown, as it could have provided benefits for physical and mental wellbeing, while also limiting the risk of transmission. However, the effects of public green space use on the rate of COVID-19 transmission are yet to be quantified, and as the size and accessibility of green spaces vary within local authorities, the risks and benefits to the public of using green space may well be context-dependent. To evaluate how green space affected COVID-19 transmission across 98 local authorities in England, we first split case rates into two periods, the pre-peak rise and the post-peak decline in cases, and assessed how baseline health and mobility variables influenced these rates. Next, looking at the residual case rates, we investigated how landscape structure (e.g. area and patchiness of green space) and park use influenced transmission. We first show that pre- and post-peak case rates were significantly reduced when overall mobility was low, especially in areas with high population clustering, and high population density during the post-peak period only. After accounting for known mechanisms behind transmission rates, we found that park use (showing a preference for park mobility) decreased residual pre-peak case rates, especially when green space was low and contiguous (not patchy). Whilst in the post-peak period, park use and green landscape structure had no effect on residual case rates. Our results show that utilising green spaces rather than other activities (e.g. visiting shops and workplaces) can reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19, especially during an exponential phase of transmission.