Benefits and Harms of Gastric Cancer Screening and Prevention in Japan: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis

Background: In 2016, gastric cancer is the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Globally, Japan and Korea are the only two countries implementing national screening program for gastric cancer. South Korea launched a biennial national -endoscopic screening program in 1999, which demonstrated a 47% reduction in gastric cancer mortality compared with no screening. In 2015, endoscopic screening was recommended by the Japanese Guideline for Gastric Cancer Screening. Currently, Japan's screening policy recommends endoscopic screening every 2 to 3 years for individuals aged 50 or above. Aim: This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of Japan's current national endoscopic screening policy and other alternative endoscopic screening options, and to identify a set of efficient endoscopic screening strategies for the current population of Japan. Methods: A microsimulation model of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma was developed to simulate a virtual population with similar risk p...