Review of post-2000 energy projections. Final report Jul-Oct 82

This report reviews a selected number of projections of U.S. energy consumption that span a period going beyond the year 2000. The review is designed to provide part of the framework within which technology planning for the early part of the 21st century must be cast. The review confirms the expectation that successive long-term projections for a given year in the future have been significantly reduced. Among primary energy sources, conventional oil and gas are estimated, in most of the studies, to significantly diminish their absolute and relative importance, while coal and nuclear power substantially increase theirs. Synthetic liquid and gaseous fuels account for a large part of incremental energy consumption to the 2020-2025 period as does--to a somewhat lesser extent--energy delivered in the form of electricity. Renewables are given surprisingly little weight in most of the studies; and new 'backstop' technologies tend to be incorporated into future energy balances in a narrowly-focused, price-deterministic framework.