Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large‐scale surface warming using statistical methods

All raw data, (c) Matlab code, and results from our analysis are available at the supplementary website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/supplements/GRL2016. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. B.A.S. acknowledges support by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048). M.H.E. and L.M.F. acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (FL100100214). A.H.C. acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1263225). Kaplan SST V2 data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. HadISST data were provided by theMet Office Hadley Centre: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs. ERSST data were provided by NOAA:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b.