A simple predictive model for postoperative mortality after head and neck cancer surgery with opening of mucosa

Summary The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for the mortality during the first 30 days after a major head and neck cancer surgery. Two hundred and sixty one consecutive surgical procedure were prospectively studied at Oscar Lambret Cancer Centre within a 36-months period. Twenty variables were recorded for each patient. The significant risk factors for postoperative mortality were assessed by univariate and multivariate analysis. Overall 30-days mortality rate was 3.83% [95% CI 3.13–4.53]. In univariate analysis identified four risk factors: female gender (odd ratio 4.25 [95% CI 1.03–17.56]), age equal or superior than 70 (odd ratio 5.06 [95% CI 1.35–18.36]), current alcohol addiction (odd ratio 3.65 [1.02–13.06]) and laryngeal location (odd ratio 4.23 [CI 95% 1.18–3.38]). In multivariate analysis only female gender and laryngeal location remained significant. The incidence of postoperative mortality was 1.63% for patients without risk factor and was 6.41% for those with one or two risk factors. This model identifies easily high-risk patients for major head and neck cancer surgery. A multicenter validation is necessary.