Preconditioning of Antarctic maximum sea-ice extent by upper-ocean stratification on a seasonal timescale

This study uses an observationally constrained and dynamically consistent ocean and sea ice state estimate. The author presents a remarkable agreement between the location of the edge of Antarctic maximum sea ice extent, reached in September, and the narrow transition band for the upper ocean (0–100 m depths) stratification, as early as April to June. To the south of this edge, the upper ocean has high stratification, which forbids convective fluxes to cross through; consequently, the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is an efficient way to cool the surface ocean to the freezing point during April to September. To the north, the upper ocean has low stratification such that the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is not efficient to cool the upper ocean. The upper ocean is instead cooled mainly through mixing with the colder inflow carried by northward Ekman transport but cannot reach the freezing point due to the nature of mixing. Therefore, upper ocean stratification, dominated by salinity here, provides an important constraint on the northward expansion of Antarctic sea ice to its maximum.