Ligurian earthquake: Seismic and tsunami scenario modeling, from hazard to risk assessment towards evacuation planning

The aim of the present study is to identify realistic and damaging scenarios of seismic and tsunami events on Nice city and to provide data relative to the resulting physical damages to the built environment, as well as to the network systems. We tried to reduce the gap between realistic scientific modeling, risk evaluation and mitigation. Regarding seismic risk scenario, very strong differences appear locally in the resulting damages, when using a finite fault 3D numerical model or empirical attenuation relationships. In this study, we show that refined earthquake modelling can improve risk assessment and therefore may be applied as input to evacuation models. However, spatial heterogeneities still need to be understood and strongly linked to ad hoc specifications (e. g. geological or seismotectonic context, source directivity, numerical methodology...) using detailed parametric analyses. As for the tsunami scenario considered in this study, very few consequences are to be expected in Nice city.