Modeling Demand for Air Travel at Jeddah International Airport: an Empirical Study

The primary objective of the work was to suggest a suitable forecasting modeling demand for air travel at Jeddah International Air- port. A large amount of data was collected to provide the basis for the conclusions. Data on traffic intensity at Jeddah International Airport for a period ranging from 1975 to 1996 was used for the analysis. These voluminous figures were fitted to most forecasting models. Results in- dicate that data in all series are trended but non-seasonal. The growth rate was high in the 70's and fluctuating in early 80's and mid 90's. After the analyses, comparison and cross-checking, the authors ar- rived at the conclusion that the non-linear cubic model was the most suitable one for aviation planning in Jeddah city. An examination of the statistical performance measures calculated for all models conclu- sively points to the usefulness of the non-linear cubic model. A fur- ther extension of the work is possible with the development of a Deci- sion Support System (DSS) based on these models so that the aviation planning authority could use it for decision-making purposes as and when required.