Ecological assessment of current and future Pogostemon cablin Benth. potential planting regions in China based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS models

Abstract Pogostemon cablin Benth. is a medicinal herb and member of the Lamiaceae family. P. cablin incense serves as an important raw material for the production of specific chemicals and pharmaceutical compounds, and as such, the demand for such incense has been rising annually. It is therefore critical that researchers establish the environmental factors that influence optimal P. cablin growth and development. Herein, we have sought to predict potential regions for future cultivation of this medicinal herb and have developed a theoretical framework for such cultivation. For this analysis, we utilized geographic records pertaining to the planting of P. cablin collected in recent years via field visits. These records, together with 19 environmental variables, we utilized for maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) modeling and an ArcGIS 10.2 software analysis in an effort to identify the key environmental parameters associated with P. cablin cultivation. The primary factors associated with P. cablin cultivation outcomes were ultimately found to be mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, max temperature of the coldest month, and mean temperature of driest quarter. These results suggested that southwestern Guangdong, a small portion of central Guangdong, and southern Hainan are all highly suited to P. cablin cultivation, while southeastern Guangxi and the majority of the area outside of central Guangdong are moderately well suited to such cultivation, and the more suitable regions for artificial P. cablin cultivation will be accessible in the future. Together, our data provide a theoretical framework for the optimal planting and growth of this important medicinal herb, thereby reducing the manpower and material resources associated with its cultivation.