Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria

Abstract We used a bottom-up optimisation model to explore the energy system implications of five alternative policy pathways for the Nigerian transport sector. Our study considered fuel switching, improved fuel economy, modal shifting, improved logistics, and carbon tax for the period 2010–2050. Results show that the alternative pathways will reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions significantly. Particularly, we found that improved vehicle fuel economy and a carbon tax can lower Nigeria's CO2 emissions by 42.8% and 25.9% respectively, in 2050 when compared with the reference case. Additionally, low-carbon pathways will enhance air quality, energy security, and the productive use of energy.