Computational Modeling of Micrometastatic Breast Cancer Radiation Dose Response

Purpose Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) involves giving radiation to the entire brain with the goals of reducing the incidence of brain metastasis and improving overall survival. Experimentally, we have demonstrated that PCI prevents brain metastases in a breast cancer mouse model. We developed a computational model to expand on and aid in the interpretation of our experimental results. Methods and Materials MATLAB was used to develop a computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice. Model input parameters were optimized such that the model output would match the experimental number of metastases per mouse from the unirradiated group. An independent in vivo–limiting dilution experiment was performed to validate the model. The effect of whole brain irradiation at different measurement points after tumor cells were injected was evaluated in terms of the incidence, number of metastases, and tumor burden and was then compared with the corresponding experimental data. Results In the optimized model, the correlation between the number of metastases per mouse and the experimental fits was >95. Our attempt to validate the model with a limiting dilution assay produced 99.9% correlation with respect to the incidence of metastases. The model accurately predicted the effect of whole-brain irradiation given 3 weeks after cell injection but substantially underestimated its effect when delivered 5 days after cell injection. The model further demonstrated that delaying whole-brain irradiation until the development of gross disease introduces a dose threshold that must be reached before a reduction in incidence can be realized. Conclusions Our computational model of mouse brain metastasis and PCI correlated strongly with our experiments with unirradiated mice. The results further suggest that early treatment of subclinical disease is more effective than irradiating established disease.