Integration of demographic variables into development plans in the Sahel

A founding principle of the Program of Action of NDjamena is the interdependence of population and development and the need for development strategies to take demographic factors into account. The concept of integration of population variables into development has evolved since its introduction in the 1974 World Population Plan of Action from a simple description of population size growth rates and distribution to a stress on harmonizing population policies and development policies with macroeconomic variables. The essence of the concept is the consideration given by development policies and programs to the interrelations between population resources the environment and development factors. Population variables and goals should ideally be treated as endogenous variables in development planning but in practice the extreme complexity of such a systematic approach limits its ability to be made operational. Usually the most crucial problems only are included. Integrated planning is composed of explicit or implicit population policies intended to influence demographic variables and of socioeconomic policies intended to adapt to demographic change. In the Sahel only Senegal Burkina Faso and Mali have formal population policies but around 1980 several countries of the region began to show interest in influencing demographic variables as they did economic variables. Fundamental principles for developing an integration strategy can be applied regardless or whether the plan is based on projections analysis of interaction of a demographic variable with factors specific to a sector or a monosectorial or multisectorial demoeconomic planning model. Demographic data is used more frequently in diagnosing problems than in developing projections or formulating objectives. The level of disaggregation of demographic projections and estimates tends to be low despite the great potential utility of demographic projections in planning. Demographic projections can be useful in analyses of the extent of changes and the implications of alternative scenarios of development planning. The most frequently used demographic variables in development planning have been spatial distribution of the population and mortality. An examination of past development plans in Mali relating to population and nutrition and population and health reveals several inconsistencies between stated goals and strategies intended to achieve them. The incoherence can be explained in part by the absence of a coherent national population policy the failure to translate the population policy into programs that take into account reciprocal effects of demographic trends and economic perspectives and their social effects and the absence of disaggregated population projections. An example from Senegal demonstrates the constraints imposed by structural adjustment programs on the entire planning process.