Study on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting Method for Three Gorges Reservoir

Medium and long term runoff forecasting is an effective means for utilization of water resources and playing economic benefits of the power plant.Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir for an example,periodic extension superposition technique,artificial neural network model,projection pursuit auto-regression model and support vector machine regression model is used to forecast the monthly runoff,respectively.The disadvantages and advantages of four methods are compared from different aspects.Moreover,the characteristics and laws of forecasting model are summarized.Thus,it provides technical support for discovering runoff forecasting rules and making the future medium and long-term power generation plan of Three Gorges Reservoir.