The Contradictions of Pre-election Violence: The Effects of Violence on Voter Turnout in Sub-Saharan Africa

Politicians often foment violence before elections to reduce competitiveness and, hence, increase their chances of winning. Given that fear and intimidation may be used to prevent voters from casting their ballots, many case studies, as well as anecdotal evidence, suggest that electoral violence has a suppressive effect on voter turnout. However, until now there has been no large-scale, multi-year analysis on the effect of pre-election violence on one of its primary targets, voter turnout. Looking across sub-Saharan Africa, and more specifically at Kenya, this article examines the influence of pre-election violence on voter turnout and finds, in the aggregate, no significant effect. Nevertheless, electoral violence may be used to depress turnout, to mobilize supporters, or to punish victors. It is a persistent trend in sub-Saharan Africa and one that threatens to undermine democratic development. Resume: De nombreuses etudes de cas sur les elections africaines, ainsi que des preuves anecdotiques, suggerent que des incidents de violence avant les elections ont un effet oppresseur sur la participation des electeurs. Ces etudes suggerent que les partis au pouvoir peuvent inciter a la violence deliberement afin de reduire la competitivite et d’empecher les electeurs—surtout ceux susceptibles de soutenir leurs opposants, d’exprimer leur voix. Base sur une analyse a grande echelle et sur plusieurs annees d’etudes sur les effets de la violence preelectorale sur la participation electorale dans toute l’Afrique subsaharienne et, plus particulierement, au Kenya, les resultats ne trouvent aucun effet signifiant dans l’ensemble des violences preelectorales. Neanmoins, il s’agit d’une tendance persistante en Afrique subsaharienne et celle qui menace de compromettre le developpement democratique.