Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.