Evaluation of PBL Parameterizations for Modeling Surface Wind Speed during Storms in the Northeast United States

AbstractThis study identifies conditions that determine errors in numerical simulations of 10-m wind speed over moderately complex terrain, emphasizing winds that lead to overhead power-line damage over a subregion of the northeast United States. Simulations with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) scheme, the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme, and a subgrid-scale topographic drag correction (Topo) applied to YSU are used to investigate error components. The wind speed distribution is dominated by low speeds, which are well depicted by Topo, but are underestimated by the MYJ and YSU schemes. Conversely, moderate and high speeds are underestimated by Topo, and MYJ and YSU perform better across specific ranges. Verification samples are conditioned by season, diurnal cycle, topography, and spatial patterns obtained with a clustering analysis. The systematic error is characterized by a positive bias in low speeds, and as speed increases the biases become more negative. Quantile comparisons, along with systematic and ...