California lighting model

This paper describes a model used to evaluate the long term electric energy savings and demand reductions from potential policy scenarios directed toward residential and commercial lighting in California. At the core of the model are estimates of base case lighting characteristics, market shares and energy use patterns in California, broken down by building type, space type, and lighting application. These basecase data were developed from end-use surveys of more than 700 homes and 50 million ft{sup 2} of commercial (nonresidential) space. The model uses a relational database which is organized by building type, space type, and lighting applications within spaces. Lamp, ballast and control technologies are linked to the lighting applications. The model is built around the concept of market shares, e.g., if porch lighting is a residential application, the market for this application could be split between incandescent, compact fluorescent, etc. Potential policy scenarios are characterized through their ability to shift market shares over time. The model projects energy use and electric demand over a 15 year period, based on current building stock as well as projections of future construction, demolition and renovation. The model estimates macro impacts for the state as a whole as well as averagemore » per dwelling unit impact for housing and per square foot impact for nonresidential buildings.« less