Local warming is real: A meta-analysis of the effect of recent temperature on climate change beliefs

Climate change is a complex phenomenon that the public learns about both abstractly through media and education, and concretely through personal experiences. While public beliefs about global warming may be controversial in some circles, an emerging body of research on the ‘local warming’ effect suggests that people’s judgments of climate change or global warming are impacted by recent, local temperatures. A meta-analysis including 31 observations across 82 952 participants derived from 17 papers published since 2006 found a small but significant effect overall: a 1°C increase in temperature increases worry about climate change by 1.2%. Moderation analysis found larger effects for temperatures over longer time frames and smaller effects for behaviors versus beliefs. We also review conceptually related effects due to other extreme weather events, as well as effects on behaviors related to climate change beliefs.