The impact of COVID-19 on acute Trauma and Orthopaedic referrals and surgery in the UK: the "golden peak weeks" of the first national multi-centre observational study. The COVid-Emergency Related Trauma and orthopaedics (COVERT) Collaborative

Objectives: This is the first national study observing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on orthopaedic trauma with respect to referrals, operative caseload and mortality during the first six weeks (namely the "golden peak weeks") following the introduction of the national social distancing and lockdown measures from mid-March 2020. Design: A longitudinal, national, multi-centre, retrospective, observational, cohort study was conducted for the first six weeks from March 17, 2020 from start of the national social distancing and then lockdown compared to the same period in 2019 as a comparative baseline. Setting: Hospitals from seven major urban cities were recruited around the UK, including London, representing a comprehensive national picture of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown at its peak. Participants: A total of 4840 clinical encounters were initially recorded. Exclusion criterion consisted of spinal pathology only. Post-exclusion, 4668 clinical encounters were recorded and analysed within the two timeframes. Main outcome measures: Primary outcomes included the number of acute trauma referrals and those undergoing operative intervention, patient demographics, mortality rates, and the proportion of patients contracting COVID-19. Secondary outcomes consisted of the mechanism of injury, type of operative intervention and proportion of aerosolising-generating anaesthesia utilised. Demographics for each patient was recorded along with underlying medical co-morbidities. Sub-group analysis compared mortalities between both cohorts. Statistical analyses included mean (+/-SD), risk and odds ratios, as well as Fisher9s exact test to calculate the statistical significance (p = 0.05). Results: During the COVID-19 period there was a 34% reduction in acute orthopaedic trauma referrals compared to 2019 (1792 down to 1183 referrals), and 29.5% less surgical interventions (993 down to 700 operations). The mortality rate significantly (both statistically and clinically) more than doubled for both risk and odds ratios during the COVID period in all referrals (1.3% vs 3.8%, p=0.0005) and in those undergoing operative intervention (2.2% vs 4.9%, p=0.004). Moreover, mortality due to COVID-related complications (versus non-COVID causes) had greater odds by a factor of at least 20 times. The odds ratios of road traffic accidents, sporting injuries, infection, and lower limb injuries were significantly less (by a third to a half) during the COVID period; albeit, the odds of sustaining neck of femur fractures and having falls <1.5m increased by more than 50%. For the operative cohorts, there was a greater odds of aerosolising-generating anaesthesia (including those with superimposed regional blocks) by three-quarters as well as doubling of the odds of a Consultant acting as the primary surgeon. Nevertheless, the odds of open reduction and internal fixation reduced by a quarter whereas removal of metalwork or foreign bodies reduced by three-quarters. Six-week Kaplan-Meier survival probability analysis confirmed those patients with neck of femur fracture and pre-existing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease were most at risk of mortality during the COVID-19 era. Conclusion: Although there was a reduction of acute trauma referrals and those undergoing operative intervention, the mortality rate still more than doubled in odds during the peak of the pandemic compared to the same time interval one year ago. Elderly patients with neck of femur fractures and existing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular comorbidities were at the highest risk stratification for mortality. This was the first national study to assess impact of COVID-19 pandemic on acute Orthopaedic trauma and it will aid clinicians in counselling trauma patients of the increased risk of mortality during the era of COVID-19 as well as acting as a risk-prediction tool influencing policymaking as the pandemic continues with potential subsequent waves. Further studies after the lifting of the lockdown are also required to observe for return of standard practice.