Volcanic Ash Dispersion Modeling Research at NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

This paper discusses research on the Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories (HYSPLIT) model that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is conducting, to improve guidance for volcanic ash forecasting. Preliminary results of one project suggest an archive of dispersion forecast patterns and trajectory forecasts from hypothetical analysis dispersion patterns and corresponding hypothetical eruptions can be used to predict the reliability of subsequent forecasts. Ensemble meteorology is utilized in another project to create a prototype of a product of probabilistic forecasting.