Uncertainty and Risk Analysis of Collection Evacuation Model of National Palace Museum

Abstract Focusing on fire, this research presents a new method to evacuate collections in a museum, especially in an emergency situation. Furthermore, the research uses Monte-Carlo Simulation Method to evaluate the uncertainty and risk of model. And, the results may support the chief person to make decision during a fire emergency. A case study for the National Palace Museum (NPM) in single exhibition room is discussed in the case study section. In the case, under fire, the smoke layer will be a limiting condition. For the rescue team, their actions have some uncertainties, which will influence to the risk of loss or damage of collections. In addition, with the risk analysis result, this research has already proved that can offer to a decision maker to evaluate the manpower to thrown in and risk probability. This research, to the fire evacuation action of museum collections, can offer the effective suggestion.