The effect of value-added tax on leverage: Evidence from China’s value-added tax reform

Abstract In this paper, we use China’s value-added tax (VAT) reform in 2007, which was aimed to encourage fixed investment purchasing, as a natural experiment to explore the effect on firm financial leverage. Results show an expansion in firm balance sheet after the reform, manifested by greater liabilities (long-term, short-term and total liability) and asset. Moreover, in terms of the ratio to asset, it’s found that long-term liability rose while the short-term liability dropped, and as a net effect, the total asset-liability ratio declined as the latter effect dominated. To theoretically explain the observed patterns, three mechanisms are highlighted, “income effect”, “maturity-match effect” and “market disciplining effect”, where income effect corresponds to a proportional expansion of balance sheet while the latter two effects alter the composition of firm leverage.