Risk Propagation Mechanism Research Based on SITR Model of Complex Supply Networks

Supply chain risk management is an important topic in supply chain management. The authors investigate the rules and characteristics of risk propagation in complex supply networks. Aiming at the characteristics of complex supply chain with complex structure and large risk consequences, considering the different impact capabilities and different anti-risk capabilities of each enterprise node, this paper proposes a SITR (susceptible-infected-temporarily removed-completely removed) risk propagation model based on weighted networks. After the dynamic analysis of the proposed model, numerical simulation is performed, and a supply chain risk control strategy is proposed according to the simulation results. The research shows that the enterprise's complete recovery rate and risk infection rate have a greater impact on the risk propagation in the supply chain network. Enterprises should increase their awareness of risk management and control, improve their complete recovery rate, and reduce their risk of infection.