Analysis of TEC values predicted by OKSM amongst low, mid and high latitude GPS stations during X 9.3 solar flare

The primary descriptive quantity of the ionospheric regions of the Earth is the Total Electron Content (TEC). This value is affected by erratic solar events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), which affect satellite signal communication. This paper aims to utilize the Ordinary Kriging-based Surrogate model (OKSM) to predict the TEC values for Low, Mid, and High- latitude GPS satellite signals receiving stations across the globe during X 9.3 solar flare that occurred on 6 September 2017. The GPS TEC values that are obtained from IONOLAB are down sampled into steps of 24 values per day for 10 days between 1 September 2017 to 10 September 2017. The relative solar parameters such as Sun Spot Number (SSN), F10.7, Kp, Ap, and Dst are considered for analyzing OKSM response. The effects of the solar flares on TEC values during these days were analyzed and validated with the TEC values from internationally acclaimed models like IRI 2016 and IRI PLAS 2017. It is found that the OKSM predicted better TEC values during extreme solar disturbance conditions when compared with its respective counterparts. The comparative results with the IRI-2016 and IRI PLAS-2017 model indicate that OKSM follows the same TEC. The performance indicator for the proposed model considered as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for low latitude Global Positioning System (GPS) station is estimated as 4.60 TECU. Similarly, the RMSE calculated for Mid and High latitude stations is computed as 1.55 and 1.29 TECU. It is evident from the results that OKSM values are closer to the original TEC values and precisely following the response of the solar flare days.