Pollutant emission reductions deliver decreased PM 2.5 -causedmortality across China during 2015–2017

Abstract. Air pollution is a serious environmental issue and leading contributor to the disease burden in China. Rapid reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and increased ozone concentrations have occurred across China, during 2015 to 2017. We used measurements of particulate matter with a diameter  1000 stations across China along with Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional air quality simulations, to explore the drivers and impacts of observed trends. The measured nationwide median PM2.5 trend of −3.4 µg m−3 year−1, was well simulated by the model (−3.5 µg m−3 year−1). With anthropogenic emissions fixed at 2015-levels, the simulated trend was much weaker (−0.6 µg m−3 year−1), demonstrating interannual variability in meteorology played a minor role in the observed PM2.5 trend. The model simulated increased ozone concentrations in line with the measurements, but underestimated the magnitude of the observed absolute trend by a factor of 2. We combined simulated trends in PM2.5 concentrations with an exposure-response function to estimate that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations over this period have reduced PM2.5-attribrutable premature morality across China by 150 000  deaths year−1.