Forecasting of global solar radiation using anfis and armax techniques

Procurement of measuring device, maintenance cost coupled with calibration of the instrument contributed to the difficulty in forecasting of global solar radiation in underdeveloped countries. Most of the available regressional and mathematical models do not capture well the behavior of the global solar radiation. This paper presents the comparison of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous term (ARMAX) in forecasting global solar radiation. Full-Scale (experimental) data of Nigerian metrological agency, Sultan Abubakar III international airport Sokoto was used to validate the models. The simulation results demonstrated that the ANFIS model having achieved MAPE of 5.34% outperformed the ARMAX model. The ANFIS could be a valuable tool for forecasting the global solar radiation.