Alternative Future Scenarios: Development of a Modeling Information System

Abstract : Military installations face challenges that may impact mission readiness and daily operations. Of these challenges, civilian urban development on lands adjacent to installations is among the most pressing, primarily due to the number and variety of unintended consequences associated with urban expansion. The consequences include safety risks; noise; impacts to plants, animals, and cultural resources; dust emissions and other air and water pollution; and installation specific issues. The Department of Defense (DoD) has investigated the use of alternative future scenario modeling (AFSM) to predict and remediate potential impacts of civilian development on military bases. The application of AFSM to military installations throughout the US has produced many predictions, or futures, that suggest how landscapes that surround selected installations may change during the next few decades. While the success of AFSM in increasing DoD's understanding of the vulnerabilities associated with regional land use changes is well documented (Cablk, et al, 1999; Gonzalez et al., 2000; Gunter et al., 2000; Steinitz et al., 1996), transfer of the AFSM process to the military has yet to occur. This is primarily due to the complexity of this process, which requires expertise in remote sensing, demography, geographic information systems (GIS), computer programming, and statistics.