First Gravitational-Wave Burst GW150914. Part I. Scenario Machine Prediction

The Advanced LIGO observatory recently reported the first direct detection of gravitational waves predicted by Einstein (1916). The detection of the event confirmed the main prediction of the pop- ulation synthesis performed with the Scenario Machine and formulated in the title of the paper by Lipunov, Postnov & Prokhorov (1997b): "First LIGO events: binary black holes merging". We dis- cuss the parameters of black holes and event rates predicted different binary scenario evolution. We give simple explanation of the big difference between detected black holes masses and mean black hole mass statistic from observations X-ray Nova systems. Proximity of the mass components GW150914 is good agreement with the observed mass ratio distribution in massive binary systems, which usually used in Scenario Machine calculations for massive binaries.